Ethiopia’s Withdrawal from Buurhakaba Base Raises Security Concerns in Somalia
By Zagazola Makama
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) from their base in Buurhakaba, Bay Region, has raised concerns over the ability of Somali security forces to assume full responsibility for security in the strategically important area.
Ethiopian forces have maintained a presence in Buurhakaba since 2014, with the town playing a significant role in the security of Baidoa and along the major road linking Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Its strategic location makes Buurhakaba an important security node and a potential staging area for military operations affecting both major urban centres and surrounding communities.
Security analysts believe Al-Shabaab could attempt to exploit the withdrawal by increasing pressure around Buurhakaba and its environs.
The immediate challenge for Somali security forces is therefore to secure the town’s perimeter, key access routes and surrounding settlements before the militant group can exploit any potential security gaps.
Although Ethiopia’s eventual withdrawal from selected positions across Somalia has been anticipated, sources close to the Somali National Army indicated that the Buurhakaba withdrawal was a planned redeployment that had been under preparation for some time.
Preliminary reports indicate that Somali forces will operate alongside troops from other partner countries during the transition period while the Holding Forces being prepared by the Somali authorities attain operational readiness.
The partner forces are expected to provide critical security support, including air and ground capabilities, aimed at deterring and disrupting any attempt by Al-Shabaab to launch attacks against positions or bases vacated by AUSSOM troops.
The coming weeks are expected to be critical in determining whether the transition can be managed without creating exploitable security gaps.
The key test will not simply be whether Somali forces can occupy positions previously held by Ethiopian troops, but whether they can establish sustainable security perimeters, maintain freedom of movement along critical routes and prevent Al-Shabaab from turning the transition into an operational advantage.
Buurhakaba could consequently emerge as an important early indicator of Somalia’s capacity to manage the transition from AUSSOM-held positions to Somali-led security arrangements amid continuing political and military pressure.
